Aguadilla Incident disputed-optical-artifact
On 25/26 April 2013 a US Customs and Border Protection aircraft's thermal
camera recorded ~3 minutes of an object near Aguadilla that appeared to fly
low, skim into the ocean (transmedium), and split in two. The Scientific
Coalition for UAP Studies argued the kinematics were anomalous; Metabunk and
ultimately AARO concluded (March 2025, moderate confidence) the footage shows
a pair of wind-drifting sky lanterns, the anomalies produced by parallax and
infrared imaging.
Aguadilla is one of the few UAP videos with a documented government-sensor
chain of custody and enough metadata (aircraft GPS, a known camera, fixed
airport geometry) to be quantitatively reconstructed by both sides. It became
the canonical test case for the 'transmedium' claim — and the canonical
demonstration of how parallax and infrared rendering manufacture apparent
high speed, water-entry, and splitting from a slow, mundane object.
Timeline
2013-04-25
A CBP aircraft over Aguadilla films an object on its Wescam MX-15D infrared
camera: a warm blob tracking low over the airport and coastline that appears
to pass near foreground objects, enter and skim the sea, re-emerge, and late
in the clip split into two. No ground eyewitness; the 'witness' is the
aircrew plus the FLIR.
primary source: AARO; SCU report; Metabunk
2015-08-06
The Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies (Robert Powell et al.) publishes a
~159-page frame-by-frame analysis arguing anomalous speeds, control near
obstacles, low-signature water interaction, and a clean bifurcation
inconsistent with passive lanterns or birds.
primary source: SCU / Zenodo (2015)
2015-2017
Metabunk analysts (Mick West's GPS triangulation; Ruben Lianza's heart-
shaped-wedding-lantern hypothesis; Lance Moody's wind-drift simulation)
argue the object stays over land, drifts at wind speed, and only appears to
split at higher zoom — consistent with two lanterns released together.
primary source: Metabunk
2025-03-20
AARO publishes its Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution: moderate confidence the
objects were a pair of sky lanterns drifting at ~7 knots, with the apparent
anomalies explained by parallax, sensor limits, and IR temperature/background
effects. SCU posts a holding statement and submits methodological questions.
primary source: AARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution (2025); DefenseScoop
Named personnel
- Robert Powell — Lead author of the Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies analysis (pro-anomaly) rank at time: role: the detailed pro-anomaly case
- Mick West — Metabunk founder; GPS-based triangulation showing the object stays over land rank at time: role: the parallax/lantern argument
- Ruben Lianza — Retired Argentine Air Force commodore; proposed the tied-wedding-lantern hypothesis rank at time: role: the specific lantern identification
- Dr. Jon Kosloski — AARO Director who presented the Puerto Rico resolution rank at time: role: the official sky-lantern conclusion
Sensor record
- Wescam MX-15D FLIR (mid-wave infrared, 3-5 micron) on DHS/CBP aircraft, GPS-logged ~3 minutes of a warm blob over the airport and coastline; the aircraft's logged position is what enabled both sides to reconstruct the geometry documentation: the publicly available IR footage; AARO's STK reconstruction
Object — reported
shape
a featureless warm blob on infrared; late in the clip it resolves into two
size
indeterminate; never independently established
surface features
none — a thermal signature
observed behaviors
- appearing to fly low and fast over the airport and coastline, then enter and skim the ocean (the 'transmedium' claim)
- appearing to split into two near the end of the clip
- on the prosaic reading: a slow object drifting with the wind (~7 knots) whose apparent speed is parallax from the moving aircraft, the 'water entry' an IR fade against the sea-temperature background, and the 'split' two lanterns resolving apart at higher zoom
Theories that invoke this case (3)
The transmedium reading the SCU advanced — a real object crossing the air-sea boundary — invoked here as the claim the geometry overturned.
The broadened mundane reading the corpus endorses: wind-drifting sky lanterns rendered anomalous by parallax and infrared imaging.
AARO's formal resolution of the case — the apparatus de-anomalizing a sensational government-sensor clip with published methodology.
Theories that do NOT invoke this case — and why
no entity — a thermal blob
the resolved geometry shows unremarkable kinematics; nothing exotic remains to explain
no associated phenomenology beyond a misread infrared track
Conventional explanations advanced — and their status
A pair of wind-drifting sky lanterns, with parallax and IR effects
proponents: AARO (2025, moderate confidence) · Mick West / Metabunk · Ruben Lianza
The leading, now-official explanation, and a convergence of independent analysts and the US government's UAP office: a slow object at wind speed whose apparent high speed is parallax, whose 'water entry' is an IR fade against the sea, and whose 'split' is two lanterns resolving apart.
An anomalous, transmedium object
proponents: Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies (Powell et al.)
The most detailed pro-anomaly study; Metabunk's central critique is that it assumed positional facts (behind a tree, exited the water) and fit a model to them. SCU has not conceded and poses methodological questions, but those are unanswered rather than answered in its favor.
Where further investigation has leverage
- Release of AARO's full STK reconstruction (3D path with error bars) and the weather/cloud-deck data SCU requested.
- Any radar track of the object (currently absent), and frame-level resolution of the 'occlusion' dispute — do the fade frames contain a real foreground object?
- Confirmation of a lantern release from a nearby resort that night.
Corpus status
disputed-optical-artifact
A government-sensor infrared video whose headline transmedium and splitting
behavior is best explained by parallax and infrared effects on a pair of
wind-drifting sky lanterns — the conclusion of independent analysts and, with
moderate confidence, the Pentagon's own AARO. The pro-anomaly Scientific
Coalition for UAP Studies disputes the rigor of that conclusion and has posed
legitimate methodological questions, unanswered as of mid-2026. Best described
as probably explained (sky lanterns), and filed as a disputed optical artifact.
status history (1)
2026-06-14 · new → disputed-optical-artifact
— seeded 2026-06-14 — corpus-growth pass (canonical cases the record lacked)